US Economic Forecast 2024: Growth and Challenges for the Year

Global and US Economic Growth

Global real GDP is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, a slowdown from previous years. The US economy is projected to grow by 1.5%, with inflation remaining above 2%​​.

Economic Deceleration

The US economic growth is likely to decelerate in 2024, influenced by the effects of monetary policy and diminishing post-pandemic tailwinds, leading to a potential soft landing scenario​​.

Consumer Spending and Income Growth

Consumer spending is forecasted to grow by just under 2%, supported by nearly 3% growth in real disposable income, despite a rise in the saving rate​​.

Baseline Economic Forecast

The baseline forecast for the US economy in 2024 includes 2% growth, 0 recessions, 2% inflation, and unemployment staying around 4%​​.

Inflation and GDP Growth

Inflation is expected to fall below 2.5% in 2024, while real GDP growth, though slowing, is projected to remain positive​​.

Strong GDP Growth in 2023

The US economy exceeded expectations in 2023 with strong GDP growth, setting a positive foundation for 2024, expected to grow by 1.8% on a Q4/Q4 basis​​.

Consumer Spending and Confidence

ncreased consumer spending, real wage gains, and a jump in consumer confidence at the end of 2023 indicate a strong start for the US economy in 2024​​.

Rising Consumer Confidence

US consumer confidence reached a five-month high in December 2023, reflecting growing optimism about lowering inflation​​.

Inflation Reduction

Inflation eased substantially throughout 2023, with the Consumer Price Index dropping from 6.4% to 3.1% by November, and gasoline prices falling below $3 a gallon in more than half the states​​.

Growth in New Businesses

There have been significant gains in the startup of new businesses, particularly by people of color, indicating increased optimism and confidence in the US economy​​.